Dynamics and Forecast of Scarlet Fever Prediction Incidence in Ukraine
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20535/ibb.2025.9.4.348257Keywords:
scarlet fever, epidemic process, cyclicity of incidence, incidence forecasting, statistical modelsAbstract
Background. The epidemic situation with scarlet fever has become more complicated in Ukraine, which requires improving surveillance. Forecasting the intensity of the epidemic process plays an important role, which will allow for a prompt response to the situation, implementation of anti-epidemic measures.
Objective. Statistical forecasting of scarlet fever incidence rates in Ukraine and its regions based on the analysis of long-term time series.
Methods. The analysis of scarlet fever incidence for 2005-2024 was conducted in Ukraine and its regions: central-southern, eastern-northern and western. Generally accepted methods of applied statistics were used. To predict the incidence, ETS exponential smoothing models and Box-Jenkins ARIMA models were used.
Results. The intensity of the epidemic process of scarlet fever in Ukraine and its regions during 2005-2024 had common features, in particular, cyclicality with periods of 4-5 years, anomalous declines and an increase in morbidity. This may indicate the influence of similar internal and external factors on the process. The projected incidence of scarlet fever in 2025-2030 in Ukraine and the regions will not undergo significant changes, while in the central-southern region there is a possible tendency to stabilize; in the eastern-northern region to decrease; in the western region – to an increase in morbidity.
Conclusions. Based on the ETS and ARIMA models used to analyze the 20-year incidence of scarlet fever, a forecast of the intensity and trends of the epidemic process in Ukraine and the regions for 2025-2030 was made.
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