Algorithm for Predicting the Glicemic Profil in Diabetes Under Regular Measurements
Keywords:diabetes, glycemic regulation, mathematical modeling, identification method, forecasting algorithm, software and algorithmic structure, computer simulation research
Background. In recent years, modern technical devices have been created so that to use in the practice of treating diabetes mellitus. These are systems for continuous monitoring of glycemia, which is a significant addition to the widely accepted measurements of glucose levels with a glucometer, various infusion systems, which significantly improve the doctor's decision-making process. However, such technical means are quite expensive and inaccessible to a wide range of users. In addition, their use is associated with both adverse reactions when wearing them and with patient compliance issues. In this case an alternative can be using mathematical modeling tools.
Objective. The aim of the paper is to prove the possibility of using mathematical modeling to predict the glycemic profile as a certain degree of alternative to a sensor for continuous monitoring of blood glucose levels under conditions of limited irregular measurements.
Methods. To solve the problem it is proposed to employ the technology of mathematical modeling. The structure of the model makes it possible to implement the mathematical formalism by analytical formulae.
Results. As a result, the insulin-glucose-tolerance test has been developed that allows quantitatively assessing a patient's personal sensitivity to insulin-bolus therapy. We proposed the mathematical model for solving the problem by analytical formulae. Algorithms for identifying model parameters, an algorithm for calculating the insulin dose that compensates for the carbohydrate component in the intended meal, and an algorithm for predicting the daily glycemic profile have been developed. The software-algorithmic structure for the implementation of the mathematical formalism has been developed.
Conclusions. The conducted simulation study employing the technology of mathematical modeling makes it possible to evaluate the functioning of the developed procedures at the preclinical stage. The simplicity of calculations using analytical formulae can be a prerequisite for the implementation of the algorithm in portable autonomous special-purpose devices or in smartdata under the Android OS, which is a definite contribution to development of digital diabetology.
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