COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics


We congratulate our regular author Igor Nesteruk on the publication of his book COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics [1], which is the result of his efforts in mathematical modeling and forecasting the development of the pandemic in individual countries and around the world. He also analyzes the hidden periods of the pandemic and the impact of various factors on its course.

The emergence of new waves of the pandemic prompted the author to further research, which resulted in the development of a simple but effective method of determining the onset of these waves. He managed to generalize the known SIR model and proposed original methods for calculating the optimal values ​​of its parameters, based on data on the number of reported cases in a given period of the epidemic wave. This made it possible to successfully model new epidemic waves in Ukraine and around the world. The results of these studies are also presented in the book [1]. Its hard copy can be found, in particular, in Vernadsky National Library of Ukraine.

Note that the journal Innovative Biosystems and Bioengineering published one of the first articles on the subject (modeling of the epidemic in China) – in February 2020 [2]. This article had attracted the interest of the international scientific community. The following articles by Igor Nesteruk in our journal were the development of research on the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics [3–5].

We wish the author success and future interesting works in mathematical biology, biological, and medical informatics and cybernetics.

[1] Nesteruk I. COVID-19 pandemic dynamics. Singapore: Springer; 2021. DOI: 10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5

[2] Nesteruk I. Statistics-based predictions of coronavirus epidemic spreading in mainland China. Innov Biosyst Bioeng. 2020;4(1):13-8. DOI: 10.20535/ibb.2020.4.1.195074

[3] Nesteruk I. Simulations and predictions of COVID-19 pandemic with the use of SIR model. Innov Biosyst Bioeng. 2020;4(2):110–1-21. DOI: 10.20535/ibb.2020.4.2.204274

[4] Nesteruk I, Benlagha N. Predictions of Covid-19 pandemic dynamics in Ukraine and Qatar based on generalized SIR model. Innov Biosyst Bioeng. 2021;5(1):37–46. DOI: 10.20535/ibb.2021.5.1.228605

[5] Nesteruk I. Visible and real sizes of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine. Innov Biosyst Bioeng. 2021;5(2):85-96. DOI: 10.20535/ibb.2021.5.2.230487